House price growth to fall to below zero in 2019: OBR



The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest economic and fiscal outlook details that it expects UK house prices to weaken to “just below zero” towards the end of this year.

The report goes on to say that, considering improved household income growth and continuing issues with supply levels, house price inflation is expected to grow by “almost” 17 per cent by the first quarter of 2024, with year-on-year growth reaching “around” 4 per cent by 2021.

The OBR adds that it expects property transactions to fall by 5.4 per cent between the end of 2018 and mid-2019 but to recover by 19 per cent by 2023.

Coreco director Andrew Montlake comments: “This year was always going to be a flat year for house prices although within the national average there will undoubtedly be huge regional variations.

“Although Brexit continues to cast a long shadow over the market, many people are fed up with putting their lives on hold any longer and are determined to still take advantage of low mortgage rates and government schemes. Coupled with a lack of stock this will keep prices stable in the short term.

“Over the next few years I would expect the picture to brighten further and this shows that housing is a long-term commitment rather than a short-term investment.”

Middleton Finance mortgage adviser Daniel Bailey adds: “Trying to predict house prices moving forward is a precarious job. The property market is very regional.

“I mainly advise in the North West of England, South Yorkshire and Derbyshire. The markets there are holding up well and in certain areas houses are selling for asking price and above.

“I would expect to see 1 to 2 per cent increase for 2019.”



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